Brazil's Tariff Disadvantage in US Market Jumps to 7.5 Percentage Points

Brazil's tariff disadvantage for products exported to the United States has increased from 0.8 percentage points to 7.5 percentage points compared to its main competitors. According to calculations by Sergio Vale, chief economist at MB Associados, this shift places Brazil as the country with the second worst access to the American market, trailing only China. The effective average tariff for Brazilian goods rose to 16.6 percent, while the average for other countries decreased to 9.1 percent.

This increase follows new 25 percent tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, which are exclusive to Brazilian products and based on investigations into unfair trade practices. Additionally, tariffs between 10 percent and 12.5 percent were applied to several countries, including Brazil, due to allegations of negligence regarding imports made with forced labor. These replaced a previous 10 percent global tariff that expired last month.

The Lula government estimates that 47.3 percent of Brazilian exports are now affected by Trump's tariffs, including recent rounds and surcharges on steel and aluminum for 2025. Constanza Negri Biasutti, trade policy manager at the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), described the situation as critical for the industry.

Economists warn that these tariffs reduce Brazil's competitiveness. Vale estimates that exports to the US could drop between 1.7 billion and 3.6 billion US dollars in the first year, with potential annual losses reaching 10 billion US dollars within four years. Last year, Brazil exported 37.6 billion US dollars to the US, representing a 6.7 percent decrease compared to 2024. Vale noted that market share lost to tariffs does not return automatically, as American buyers may seek alternative suppliers to avoid future uncertainty.