Experts Expect Bank of Korea to Raise 2026 Growth Forecast Above 3 Percent

Economic experts anticipate that the Bank of Korea will raise its growth outlook for the South Korean economy this year to over 3 percent. This expectation is based on recovering domestic demand and semiconductor exports that have performed better than expected. According to a survey of six economic analysts conducted by Yonhap News Agency, respondents believe the central bank may revise its 2026 growth outlook from 2.6 percent to as high as 3.4 percent.

Analysts cited several drivers for this growth, including increased government expenditure resulting from higher tax revenues and the ongoing semiconductor boom. Park Jeong-woo of Nomura Securities projected 3.4 percent annual growth and suggested the central bank would sharply raise forecasts for both this year and next. Other experts provided estimates between 3.1 and 3.2 percent. For next year, the survey showed growth outlooks ranging from 2.2 percent to 2.8 percent.

While most respondents believe a supply and demand mismatch in the global semiconductor market will provide continued momentum beyond 2027, some offered warnings. Joo Won of the Hyundai Research Institute noted that August chip exports declined from the previous month, suggesting the supercycle could peak sooner than expected, possibly by the first half of next year.

Additionally, experts expect the central bank to significantly increase its account surplus estimate from the 250 billion US dollars announced in May. This follows data showing the surplus for the first half of 2026 has already exceeded last year's record annual tally of 191 billion US dollars. Regarding consumer prices, experts generally expect the Bank of Korea to maintain its inflation rate estimate of 2.7 percent due to the high won-dollar exchange rate and rising oil prices.