Finnish President Alexander Stubb Says Russia Unlikely to Attack NATO or Use Nuclear Weapons

Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated in an interview with the German newspaper Bild that Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or launch an attack on NATO. Stubb cited intelligence and the strength of the alliance as a deterrent, asserting that it would make no sense for any power to test the resolve of the world's most powerful military alliance. He further noted that China would not allow the Kremlin to use nuclear arms, citing a conversation with the Chinese foreign minister.

Stubb argued that Russia is currently suffering too many losses to open a second front against another European country. He suggested that Moscow's only remaining option for escalation is mobilization, which he believes could have domestic political repercussions. He pointed to new laws restricting freedom of movement and closing borders as indications that Russia may proceed with mobilization this fall to maintain its war effort. The Kremlin has denied these plans, with spokesperson Dmitry Peskov calling reports of mobilization fabricated stories planted by Ukrainian authorities.

While Stubb dismissed concerns about a direct attack, he called for Europe to prepare for the worst to prevent it. This perspective contrasts with some German officials who assess that Russia could be in a position to attack a NATO country by 2029. Stubb stated he sees no evidence or facts to support such a timeline.