Global and Regional Drought Risks Intensify Amid Strengthening El Nino

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) has warned that drought is a structural risk to economies and livelihoods that will intensify over time. During COP17 in Ulaanbaatar, Deputy Executive Secretary Andrea Meza stated that droughts have increased by 30 percent since 2000 and are now affecting regions previously unaccustomed to the phenomenon, including parts of the Amazon and Panama. Projections from the World Drought Atlas suggest that three out of four people could be affected by droughts by 2050.

These global trends are reflected in regional crises. India is facing its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades due to a strengthening El Nino. In the Indian state of Karnataka, Deputy Chief Minister G. Parameshwara reported a 31 percent overall rainfall deficit between June 1 and August 24. The state is preparing to declare 102 taluks as drought hit, noting that 175 of 240 taluks are facing rainfall deficits. This has resulted in drinking water being supplied via tankers to 758 villages and 114 urban wards, while agricultural sowing has reached only 71 percent of the target area.

Framing of these events varies by political lean. Center leaning coverage focuses on the meteorological cause of the crisis, specifically the role of El Nino. Center left coverage emphasizes the administrative struggle and the need for the central government to relax drought manual norms to assist farmers. Center right coverage frames the issue as a systemic global risk, highlighting the economic impact on international trade and the necessity for corporate adaptation.