Global Concerns Rise Over Strong El Niño Impact on Agriculture

A strong El Niño event is currently underway in the Pacific, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimating an 82 percent probability that this year's phenomenon will be among the strongest since records began in 1950. The event occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to remain near South America and causing reduced rainfall in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southeast Asia. Maximo Torero, chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, has warned that this could exacerbate a global food crisis already strained by high energy and fertilizer prices and conflicts in Ukraine and Iran.

Impacts are already appearing in several regions. Australia's wheat harvest has fallen by approximately 25 percent compared to the previous year. In India, the monsoon brought 16 percent less rain nationwide through the end of July, with deficits reaching 30 percent in the south and east. Consequently, Indian farmers planted 23 percent less grain than they did a year ago, and the Indian government has suspended sugar exports until at least September 2026 to ensure domestic supply. Despite a recent revival of the monsoon, concerns regarding El Niño persist.

Experts clarify that while El Niño causes droughts and floods in specific regions, it is not directly responsible for current extreme weather in Europe. Researchers from the University of Hamburg note that it remains unclear if climate change is making these natural fluctuations more frequent or intense.