Likud Party Members to Vote in High Stakes Primary for Knesset Slate

Approximately 140,000 members of the Likud party will vote on Monday to determine the candidates for the party's election slate ahead of the October 27 general election. The contest is described as unusually competitive because the number of open spots on the roster has been reduced. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expanded his control over the slate by securing the power to appoint eight figures in reserved slots among the top 29 places, with Defense Minister Israel Katz receiving an additional ninth reserved spot. Already, Gideon Sa'ar, Haim Katz, and Oren Dobronsky have been assigned to three of these earmarked slots.

Recent polling suggests Likud may win 22 to 24 seats in October, a decrease from its current 32 seats. This shrinking projection has led some incumbents, such as MK Eliyahu Revivo, to announce they will not run for reelection due to the difficulty of securing a realistic spot on the slate. A poll of over 1,000 Likud members conducted by the Agam Institute placed Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana in first place, followed by Tally Gotliv, Boaz Bismuth, and Eli Cohen.

Outlets with a center lean frame the primary as a battle for a shrinking number of spots and a test of whether the party will consolidate under Netanyahu or move toward moderates. In contrast, a source with a left lean frames the event as a referendum on the party's direction, suggesting Netanyahu hopes to remove extremist figures whom he previously nurtured.