Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Dominate Early 2026 Presidential Campaign Landscape

The 2026 presidential campaign has officially begun with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro dominating the digital and physical landscape. According to data from AP Exata Inteligência, the two candidates account for 67.4 percent of all social media conversations, with Lula holding 40.5 percent and Flávio holding 26.9 percent. Other candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema trail significantly in online visibility. Data indicates that both Lula and Flávio have seen a recovery in positive mentions and confidence levels over the last few months, despite previous declines. Specifically, Lula's positive mentions rose to 45.5 percent from 34.2 percent in May, while Flávio recovered to 43.5 percent after a drop caused by the Master case. Fear is a prominent emotion associated with both candidates, with Flávio currently triggering slightly more fear at 17.5 percent compared to Lula's 16.4 percent. In a physical campaign launch in São Bernardo do Campo, Lula held a nostalgic rally focused on his history as a union leader and his previous government results. During the event, Lula emphasized the role of women in social struggles and criticized the Bolsonaro government's approach to public security and gun sales. He also made a critical remark regarding STF Minister Dias Toffoli, citing a past grievance regarding his imprisonment. While the center right framing focuses on the statistical difficulty for third party candidates to break through algorithmic blocks and polarization, the left framing emphasizes the emotional and historical resonance of Lula's campaign launch and his connection to social movements.