Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Hesitate Over First Round Presidential Debate

The first presidential debate, scheduled for August 23 by Band TV, remains uncertain as the two leading candidates, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, have not confirmed their participation. The network previously moved the date from August 17 to accommodate Lula's campaign launch event in São Bernardo do Campo, though his attendance is still not guaranteed. Other debates are planned for September 14 via SBT and October 1 via TV Globo.

Strategically, the PL party has conditioned Flávio Bolsonaro's attendance on the presence of Lula. Valdemar Costa Neto, the national president of the PL, stated that debating candidates with low polling numbers makes little sense. Conversely, Lula has expressed reluctance to participate in debates that he believes do not serve to politicize society or involve candidates with a commitment to the public.

Both campaigns perceive risks in early participation. For Flávio Bolsonaro, there are concerns that he could become the primary target for other right wing candidates, such as Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos, or that specific personal controversies might be raised. There are also concerns regarding his physical and emotional readiness for a national live broadcast. For Lula, the risk is that he could become the preferred target of the other participants, most of whom represent the right.

Both reports note a historical pattern of candidates for reelection avoiding first round debates to preserve their lead. This includes Fernando Henrique Cardoso in 1998 and Lula in 2006. While one center right source frames Lula's potential absence as a lack of respect for the voter, it also notes that Jair Bolsonaro similarly skipped some first round debates in 2022.