Meteorological Models Predict Increased Rainfall Across Southern Cone for Late 2026

Meteorological forecasts indicate a significant increase in precipitation for parts of Argentina and Chile during the coming months. In Argentina, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) predicts above normal rains for 14 provinces during August, September, and October. These conditions are linked to the influence of El Niño, with some experts and reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggesting the possibility of a very intense or super El Niño event. This phenomenon is expected to bring more abundant and persistent rains to the northeast, the littoral region, and the eastern Pampean region, including Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, and Entre Ríos. Experts warn that this could lead to deeper flooding and increased river levels in the Plata basin due to heavy rains in southern Brazil. In Chile, the ECMWF model projects above average precipitation from August through October, particularly affecting the Norte Chico, the central zone, and parts of the center south. While the signal is present throughout the period, it becomes more marked in September and October. In Argentina, the SMN also anticipates temperatures higher than average for nearly half the country, specifically in the center and north. Experts note that the current context of climate change may intensify the impacts of these weather patterns compared to previous events, such as the extreme El Niño of 1997.