Ukraine Warns of Potential New Russian Mobilization Drive

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that Russian authorities are planning to expand mobilization this autumn. Citing intelligence services, Zelenskyy claimed that President Vladimir Putin is preparing to recruit more soldiers to intensify attacks and expand the war, despite Russia losing more fighters at the front than it can currently recruit. This follows a partial mobilization decree issued by Putin in autumn 2022 that remains in effect.

Several indicators suggest a possible new drive. The Institute for the Study of War reported in late July that the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for mobilization, though analysts noted the final decision depends on Putin's perception of the battlefield and Kremlin stability. Additionally, investigative reports from Verstka and Vaschnyje Istorii indicate that Russian leadership has been secretly discussing mobilization due to falling recruitment rates. Data from Moscow's mayoral office showed a decline in personnel sent to the front in April and May compared to the previous year, while contract recruitment rates reportedly halved in the last quarter of 2025 and continued to drop in early 2026.

Further evidence of unrest includes reports from Verstka that rental demand in Yerevan, Armenia, has surged by approximately 30 percent. This trend mirrors patterns seen in 2022, suggesting Russians are planning to leave the country before the State Duma elections scheduled for September 18 to 20. Some military personnel interviewed by Verstka claimed that current units are staffed at only 30 to 40 percent and that many new arrivals are unfit for combat.

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on Zelenskyy's remarks during a late July press conference, stating that it is not Zelenskyy's job to talk about Russian plans.