UN and Experts Warn of Global Food Insecurity Amid El Niño and Geopolitical Conflict

The United Nations warns that the combination of the El Niño weather phenomenon and ongoing wars may increase global food prices and cause the number of people facing acute hunger to rise from 225 million to 274 million. This represents a 22 percent increase in the population unable to meet basic daily nutritional needs. The UN identifies a double blow to food security: the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted grain trade, while the conflict in the Middle East blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which handles up to one third of the world's fertilizers. These geopolitical tensions are now compounded by extreme weather, including droughts and floods, which are straining weakened crops.

Regional impacts vary significantly. In Mozambique, floods from late 2025 into early 2026 destroyed approximately 275,405 hectares of farmland and affected over 314,000 farmers, leading to sharp increases in basic food prices. In South Africa, Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago stated that while the country has avoided immediate food inflation because the Middle East conflict began after the summer planting season, an extreme El Niño pattern poses a significant risk of drought for the next production cycle. Some data suggests the current El Niño could be among the strongest since the 1982 to 1983 event.

Conversely, some market participants see potential economic opportunities. A representative from the Thai Rice Exporters Association suggested that if El Niño reduces rice yields in other major producing countries, demand for Thai rice exports could increase, potentially helping Thailand reach its goal of 7 million tonnes in exports. However, he noted that the Middle East conflict has already hampered Thai exports to Iraq, causing a loss in market share.

Outlets with a center left lean emphasize the humanitarian crisis and the urgent need for preventative investment to avoid mass hunger. Outlets with a center lean focus on the trade implications and the shifting dynamics of global rice markets. Outlets with a center right lean highlight the risks to inflation targets and the specific challenges facing national central banks and agricultural sectors.