Analysis of US Military Strategy and the Difficulty of War Withdrawal

The United States military is currently engaged in a conflict in Iran where prospects for military victory appear bleak, drawing comparisons to the long and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan five years ago. During the Afghanistan war, the US struggled to exit the conflict despite the death of Osama bin Laden in 2011, which analysts suggest was the optimal time to leave. The eventual withdrawal was marked by the collapse of the Afghan government, the takeover by Taliban insurgents, and a suicide attack at Kabul airport that killed thirteen American service members. President Donald Trump has expressed conflicting views on the current situation in Iran, stating in an Oval Office address that the US does not need the country's oil or resources but remains there to support allies.

Security analysts and military officials suggest that the difficulty of exiting these conflicts stems from a desire to maintain international credibility and avoid political costs at the polls. Andrew R. Hoehn of the Rand Corp. described much of the US activity over recent decades as policing an empire to impose order or defend American values. Rosemary Kelanic of Defense Priorities compared political leaders to doctors in an intensive care unit who know a patient will die but hope it happens after their shift ends. General Austin S. Miller, the final US commander in Afghanistan, noted in a recent podcast that he expected to leave his 2018 mission with a diminished reputation, describing himself as a fool for doing dirty work.