Datafolha Poll Shows Lula Leading Presidential Race with Flávio Bolsonaro in Second
6 sources · Brazil
Who reported this
- G1
- UOL
- CNN Brasil
- Folha de S.Paulo
- Estadao
- Gazeta do Povo
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- Centre-left
- Centre
- Centre-right
- Right
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A new Datafolha poll released on Friday shows President Lula leading the first round of the 2026 presidential race with 39 percent of intentions of vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 32 to 33 percent depending on the scenario. In a simulated second round between the two, Lula leads with 47 percent against 43 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro. The margin of error for the total sample is two percentage points. The survey also considered a scenario including Pablo Marçal, who currently faces ineligibility, though his presence only slightly shifted the numbers for the top candidates.
Regional and demographic data reveal a polarized electorate. Lula maintains strong support in the Northeast, among women, Black voters, Catholics, and lower income brackets. Flávio Bolsonaro leads among evangelical voters, in the South, and among voters with higher family incomes. In the Southeast, the two candidates are in a technical tie. The poll also indicates that Lula would defeat other potential rivals such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos in second round simulations.
Center leaning outlets frame the results as a sign of a balanced and tight race, noting that Lula's lead has narrowed since June. They highlight that the current political climate is influenced by corruption allegations involving Lula's son, Fábio Luís, and former chief of staff Marco Aurélio Ribeiro. Center left outlets emphasize Lula's continued leadership across various scenarios and his strength among specific demographic groups. Center right outlets focus on the technical tie in the second round and the competitiveness of Flávio Bolsonaro as the primary challenger.
Beyond the presidential race, the poll provided data on state elections. In São Paulo, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas leads the race for re election with 45 percent in the first round, while Fernando Haddad has 27 percent. In Minas Gerais, Senator Cleitinho Azevedo leads with 32 percent, followed by Patrus Ananias and Alexandre Kalil with 12 percent each. The poll also found that Tarcísio de Freitas's administration in São Paulo has a 42 percent positive rating.
How each side framed it
- Centre-left
- Focused on Lula's overall leadership in the polls and his dominance among women and lower income voters.
- Centre
- Framed the presidential race as increasingly balanced and highlighted the impact of corruption allegations on Lula's lead.
- Centre-right
- Emphasized the technical tie in the second round and the viability of Flávio Bolsonaro as a strong competitor.
Sources
- Centre CNN Brasil: Datafolha: 60% of Sao Paulo voters approve Tarcísio government
- Centre CNN Brasil: Datafolha: Senate race in MG brings quadruple tie between candidates
- Centre CNN Brasil: Datafolha: Senate race in PE has tie between 4 candidates
- Centre CNN Brasil: Datafolha: Michelle and Leila do Vôlei lead Senate race in DF
- Centre-right Estadao: Raquel Lyra has 47% and João Campos, 40%, in the election for governor of Pernambuco, survey points
- Centre-right Estadao: Marina and Tebet have 12%, Prado, 10%, Derrite, 7%, Salles, 6%, for Senate in SP, says Datafolha
- Centre-right Estadao: Datafolha Survey: Paes has 41%, Ruas, 19% and Garotinho, 9% in Rio de Janeiro
- Centre-right Estadao: Tarcísio leads with 45% against 27% for Haddad in São Paulo, says Datafolha poll
- Centre-right Estadao: Datafolha poll: Lula has 47%, and Flávio Bolsonaro totals 43% in an eventual second round
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Celina Leão and José Roberto Arruda tie in race for DF Government
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Benedita leads with 15% for Senate in Rio; 6 tie for second seat
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Raquel Lyra has 47% in Pernambuco, against 40% for João Campos
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Marina and Tebet have 12%, and André do Prado, 10%, in Senate race in SP
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Tarcísio leads race for SP Government with 45%, against 27% for Haddad
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Lula leads among women and the poorest, and Flávio Bolsonaro, among evangelicals
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Senate race in Pernambuco has 4 candidates tied in the lead
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Eduardo Paes has 41% in Rio, against 19% for Douglas Ruas
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Petistas speak of relief with stability of Lula, and Flávio's team sees dissatisfaction with government
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Cleitinho leads race in MG with 32%; Patrus and Kalil have 12% each
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Tarcísio administration in SP has 42% positive rating and 23% negative
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Negative evaluation of Celina Leão's government in DF is 32%, and positive, 24%
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Raquel Lyra wins by wide margin among Bolsonaristas and leads among neutral voters in PE
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Positive rating of Mateus Simões government in MG is 23%, and the negative, 15%
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Marília Campos has 11% in Senate race in MG; Viana marks 8%, and Domingos Sávio, 6%
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Lula marks 39% in 1st round, and Flávio Bolsonaro has 33%
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Government of Raquel Lyra in PE has 50% positive evaluation and 18% negative
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Interim government of Ricardo Couto has 28% positive evaluation and 16% negative in RJ
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Michelle Bolsonaro (19%) and Leila do Vôlei (16%) lead Senate race for DF
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Popularity of Lula slips and keeps dispute with Flávio balanced
- Centre-left G1: Datafolha: Lula, 39%; Flávio Bolsonaro, 33%; Ronaldo Caiado, 5%; Renan Santos, 4%; Zema, 3%; Augusto Cury, 2%
- Centre-left G1: Datafolha: 24% evaluate Celina Leão's management as positive and 32%, as negative
- Centre-left G1: Datafolha, 1st round: see voting intention by region, gender, age, political position and religion
- Centre-left G1: Datafolha, 1st round: see voting intention by region, gender, age, political position and religion in the scenario with Pablo Marçal
- Centre-right Gazeta do Povo: The numbers of the new Datafolha survey for president
- Centre-left UOL: Datafolha: Lula leads among women and the poorest, and Flávio Bolsonaro, among evangelicals
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