Datafolha Poll Shows Tight Presidential Race Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
2 sources · Brazil
Who reported this
- CNN Brasil
- Folha de S.Paulo
What the colours mean
- Left
- Centre-left
- Centre
- Centre-right
- Right
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A new Datafolha poll conducted between September 8 and 10, 2026, reveals a highly competitive presidential race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). In a national second round scenario, Lula holds a slight lead with 46 percent of intentions to vote compared to 44 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro. In the first round, Lula leads with 39 percent against 35 percent for Bolsonaro.
Regional data shows a divided electorate. Flávio Bolsonaro leads in São Paulo with 47 percent against Lula's 42 percent, in Rio de Janeiro with 49 percent against 41 percent, and in the Distrito Federal with 51 percent against 39 percent. Conversely, Lula holds a significant lead in Pernambuco with 61 percent compared to 30 percent for Bolsonaro. In Minas Gerais, the two candidates are in a technical tie, with Lula at 46 percent and Bolsonaro at 45 percent.
The poll also tracked gubernatorial races. In São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas leads with 49 percent in the first round. In Minas Gerais, Cleitinho Azevedo leads with 37 percent. In Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes leads with 43 percent, while Raquel Lyra leads in Pernambuco with 47 percent. Celina Leão is the favorite in the Distrito Federal.
Center leaning reports focus primarily on the statistical data and regional breakdowns. One center leaning analysis frames the current state of the campaign as an indigent debate dominated by corruption scandals and fiscal risks, noting that the current government's approval rating of 32 percent is similar to the rating Jair Bolsonaro had at the start of the 2022 election.
How each side framed it
- Centre
- Center leaning outlets focused on the statistical data of the polls while one analysis criticized the overall quality of the political debate and the government's approval ratings.
Sources
- Centre CNN Brasil: Datafolha: Flávio has 51% in 2nd round in DF; Lula, 39%
- Centre CNN Brasil: Datafolha: Lula leads 2nd round with 61% in PE; Flávio has 30%
- Centre CNN Brasil: Datafolha: Lula and Flávio are technically tied in the 2nd round in MG
- Centre CNN Brasil: Datafolha: In SP, Flávio leads 2nd round with 47%; Lula, 42%
- Centre CNN Brasil: Datafolha: Flávio leads 2nd round in RJ with 49%, Lula has 41%
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Flávio leads with 47% against 42% for Lula in SP, Datafolha points; MG has a tie
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Tight campaign, indigent debate
100% of the statements in this article were traced back to the source articles listed above.