Extreme El Niño Events Impact South America

Peruvian authorities report a high probability that the current El Niño event will reach an extraordinary magnitude between September 2026 and January 2027. According to the National Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (Enfen), there is a 70 percent chance of an extraordinary event in the coming months, which may decrease to 62 percent by January. Peruvian officials are preparing for a worst case scenario where 1.2 million people could be affected, primarily on the northern coast. Prevention efforts currently focus on cleaning riverbeds to prevent flooding in populated areas such as Piura.

In Chile, the 2026 winter was marked by the most intense El Niño since instrumental records began. The period saw extreme weather fluctuations, including one of the three driest Junes ever recorded in Santiago, followed by record breaking rainfall in July. La Serena received over 150 mm of rain in four days, and Santiago experienced its longest consecutive rainy period in over 40 years. High temperatures were also recorded, including a maximum of 33.4 degrees Celsius in Iquique during August. While mudslides hit Tocopilla and Antofagasta, no fatalities were reported. An academic from the University of Santiago attributed the lack of casualties to significant state investment in anti flood infrastructure over the last two decades.