Factors Point to Higher Reelection Rate for Brazilian Federal Deputies in 2026

Current data suggests a higher reelection rate for federal deputies in the 2026 elections compared to historical averages. Of the 513 total deputies, 437 or 85.2 percent are seeking reelection. Between 2002 and 2022, the average reelection rate was 51.7 percent, while the 2022 rate was 55 percent. Researchers from the Center for Public Sector Politics and Economy (CEPESP) at FGV identify four primary factors that could increase the success rate of incumbents. First, parliamentary amendments to the federal budget have increased from approximately 16 million reais to 40 million reais per deputy since the last election. Second, a high reelection rate for mayors in 2024, which reached 82 percent compared to a historical average of 57.2 percent, is expected to maintain existing agreements between mayors and deputies. Third, a reduction in the number of candidates on party lists allows incumbents more control over vote dispersion. Finally, a potential increase in voter abstention may favor candidates with more resources to mobilize voters. If the current percentage of candidates seeking reelection is multiplied by the highest historical success rate of 74.4 percent from 2014, the resulting reelection rate could reach 63.7 percent, which would significantly reduce the renewal of the Chamber.