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Fed Governor Christopher Waller Links Interest Rate Decision to Inflation Data

2 sources across 2 countries · South Africa · United Kingdom

Who reported this

  • Business Day South Africa · Centre-right · Arena Holdings (Lebashe Investment Group)
  • Financial Times United Kingdom · Centre · Nikkei Inc.

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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated on Thursday that his decision regarding interest rates at the next policy meeting will be heavily influenced by August inflation data. Waller said he is inclined to support keeping rates steady if there is continued progress toward the 2 percent inflation goal. However, he warned that he would consider a rate hike if inflation data comes in hot, noting that the current policy rate is only slightly restricting aggregate demand.

Waller observed that while inflation remains meaningfully above the target, it is making slow but continued progress. He identified upside risks including the AI buildout and potential tariff increases, though he does not view current energy prices or past tariffs as significant ongoing drivers of inflation. This comes as investors had been pricing in odds of a quarter percentage point hike, partly following remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Following Waller's remarks, traders trimmed their bets on a rate hike, with the probability dropping from about 60 percent to just above even odds. Stock market futures remained little changed.

How each side framed it

Centre
The center lean framing focused on Waller's inclination to keep rates on hold.
Centre-right
The center-right lean framing emphasized the possibility that hot inflation could prompt a rate hike.

Sources

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