Fertility Rates Reach Historic Lows Across the Maghreb

Fertility rates in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia have fallen to historic lows, with rates across the three countries dropping by more than half since the 1970s. A study by France's Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) describes this decline as exceptionally rapid and lasting. Tunisia currently reports the lowest fertility rate in the region, with 1.58 children per woman in 2023 and an estimated 1.53 in 2024, while Morocco stands at 1.97 and Algeria at 2.61.

Experts and residents attribute the shift to a combination of economic and social factors. Financial strain on young professionals and the rising cost of raising children have made smaller families a rational economic decision. Social changes include increased urbanization, longer education periods, and growing professional ambitions among women. Some individuals also cite the desire for personal tranquility and the mental and physical demands of parenthood as reasons for having fewer or no children.

This demographic shift is leading to an aging population, which may put pressure on pension systems and the balance between retirees and working age citizens. In Tunisia, people aged 60 and over now make up 17 percent of the population. INED suggests that if deaths eventually outnumber births, immigration may be the only way to sustain population growth and fill labor shortages.