Futura Poll Shows Lula Leading in 2026 Presidential Simulations

A new poll from the Futura Inteligência institute indicates that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads in simulated first round scenarios for the 2026 presidential election. In the primary stimulated scenario, Lula holds 38.8 percent of voting intentions, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 34.1 percent. Other candidates in this scenario include Ronaldo Caiado at 5.9 percent, Romeu Zema and Renan Santos both at 3.6 percent, and Augusto Cury at 1.2 percent. In a second stimulated scenario with fewer candidates, Lula's support is 36.3 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro's is 32.7 percent.

In simulated second round matchups, Lula leads numerically against all tested opponents. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula has 46.5 percent compared to 44 percent. Against Ronaldo Caiado, he leads 45.3 percent to 39.2 percent. He also leads Romeu Zema 46.5 percent to 39.8 percent and Renan Santos 47.3 percent to 33.3 percent. Regarding voter rejection, Flávio Bolsonaro is the most rejected candidate at 47.1 percent, followed closely by Lula at 45.9 percent. Romeu Zema follows with 16.6 percent rejection.

The poll also measured current approval of President Lula, finding that 49.9 percent of Brazilians disapprove of him while 47.3 percent approve. Additionally, 43 percent of respondents rate the president as bad or awful, while 39.5 percent rate him as good or great.

Outlets with a center lean focused on the specific percentage leads and the rejection rates of the top candidates. In contrast, a center right outlet framed the results as a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in certain scenarios, noting that the difference in the second stimulated scenario and the second round simulation falls within the 2.2 percentage point margin of error.

The survey interviewed 2,000 voters by telephone between August 3 and August 7. It has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points and a 95 percent confidence interval.