Global Food System More Resilient to Super El Niño Due to Technological Gains and Stocks

The global food system is better prepared for the current super El Niño than in previous decades due to near record grain stocks, technological advancements, and the rise of major exporters like Brazil and Russia. Since the 1980s, global agricultural production has outpaced population growth and consumption. This resilience is driven by higher yield crop varieties, improved irrigation, precision agriculture, and increased use of fertilizers. Experts note that while drought still impacts supply and prices, the disruptions are expected to be less severe than those seen during the severe El Niño events of 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016.

Despite these gains, significant risks remain. Drought has already hindered planting across Australia, India, and Southeast Asia. Meteorologists warn that the phenomenon may intensify in the fourth quarter and early next year, potentially becoming one of the strongest ever recorded. Furthermore, conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea region have caused shortages of diesel and fertilizers, which tempers optimism regarding global production.

Strategic reserves are expected to mitigate some shortages. India holds rice stocks exceeding one year of total global exports, while China holds nearly half of the world's wheat stocks. These reserves should help stabilize demand if production in key regions like Australia is compromised by the drought.