Hung Parliament Likely in Philippines' Bangsamoro Region After Landmark Election

Unofficial results from the landmark elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) suggest that no single party has secured a majority, likely resulting in a hung parliament. With approximately 98.56 percent of party list votes counted, the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP), led by Abdulraof Macacua, leads with 35.2 percent of the vote. The United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), led by Al Haj Murad Ebrahim, follows with 32.4 percent. A third group, the BARMM Grand Coalition (BGC), has garnered 20.5 percent and is viewed as a potential kingmaker in coalition negotiations.

The two leading parties emerged from a split within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a former separatist movement. The division occurred after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. appointed Macacua as interim chief minister over the objections of the MILF senior leadership. To form a government before the October 30 opening session, a party or coalition must secure 41 of the 80 seats in the parliament. BFP and UBJP officials estimated they had taken 32 and 29 seats, respectively.

Election officials reported a turnout of approximately 80 percent, with about 1.8 million votes cast from 2.39 million registered voters. The Philippine elections chief described the process as a success, while other reports noted that the vote took place amid scattered violence. This election is considered the most significant milestone since the 2014 peace agreement between the Philippine government and the MILF, which aimed to end a conflict that killed over 120,000 people and displaced millions.

Center left sources frame the event as a critical step toward political stability and a milestone for peace, highlighting the personal motivations of voters. In contrast, the center source emphasizes the potential for political instability and the specific challenges of forming a government amid a split in the region's traditional powerbroker.