IMD Forecasts Below Normal September Rainfall Following Deficit August

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that rainfall in September will remain below normal, meaning the overall monsoon season is likely to end at less than 90 percent of the long period average. This follows an August that saw a 16 percent rainfall shortfall, which the IMD attributed in part to the persisting El Nino phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to the IMD, August was the seventh largest deficiency for that month since 2001 and the warmest August on record since 1901, with a mean temperature of 28.01 degrees Celsius.

Regional data shows that nearly half the country experienced below normal rains by the end of August. Specifically, 312 of the 741 monitored districts had deficient rains, while 38 districts had large deficiencies. Odisha was a notable exception, recording a 25 percent surplus. While four low pressure systems developed in August, their activity was largely confined to the Indo Gangetic Plains. For September, normal rainfall is expected only in limited areas including parts of Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, eastern Uttar Pradesh, eastern Madhya Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Ladakh.

Center leaning coverage focused on the specific regional deficits and the meteorological causes of the shortfall. In contrast, center right leaning coverage emphasized the economic implications, quoting an agri commodity expert who stated that the uneven rainfall is likely to stunt kharif crop yields and output, potentially causing production to fall below government targets for the 2026 to 2027 crop year.