Infrastructure Investment Sentiment Drops in Brazil Despite Record Spending

The percentage of executives, investors, and specialists who view the scenario for infrastructure investments in Brazil as favorable has fallen to approximately 38 percent, according to the latest Infrastructure Barometer conducted by Abdib and EY-Parthenon. This represents a significant decline from previous levels, while the share of those who view the scenario as unfavorable rose from 20.4 percent to 30.9 percent over the last six months. The survey, which collected 233 responses between June 8 and 23, comes after a record year in 2025, when investments reached R$ 280 billion, with the private sector providing about 80 percent of those funds.

Industry experts attribute the increased caution to a combination of domestic and international factors. These include inflation, high interest rates, the tax reform, and the effects of the war in the Middle East. Specifically, 44 percent of respondents noted a medium impact from the conflict on logistics and oil prices, while 20.3 percent reported a high impact. Additionally, 59 percent of participants stated that U.S. trade protectionism affects their business, and 62 percent of companies are currently studying how the tax reform will impact their contracts.

Political considerations also feature prominently in the survey. Approximately 44 percent of executives believe a victory for an opposition candidate in the presidential elections would positively impact investments. Conversely, 31 percent believe that the continuity of the current government under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would have a negative impact. Despite the short term caution, sanitation remains the top priority for investment over the next three years, followed by highways and railways.