Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in Second Round Simulation, BTG/Nexus Poll Shows

President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are in a technical tie for the 2026 presidential race in a simulated second round, with 46 percent and 45 percent of intentions of vote respectively, according to a BTG/Nexus poll released Monday. The survey, which interviewed over 2,000 voters between August 21 and 23, carries a margin of error of 2 percentage points and a 95 percent confidence level. In other second round simulations, Lula is tied with Ronaldo Caiado at 46 percent to 42 percent, while he leads Romeu Zema 47 percent to 40 percent and Renan Santos 47 percent to 35 percent.

In the first round simulations, Lula leads with 41 percent in a scenario without Pablo Marçal and 40 percent in a scenario that includes him. Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 37 percent and 34 percent in those respective scenarios. The poll also measured rejection rates, showing that 49 percent of respondents would not vote for Lula and 48 percent would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro. Other candidates with notable rejection rates include Ronaldo Caiado at 34 percent, Romeu Zema at 36 percent, and Renan Santos at 35 percent.

The status of Pablo Marçal's candidacy remains a point of legal contention. While he registered his candidacy via a court injunction, he remains ineligible by a decision of the TRE-SP. The TSE has restricted him from accessing electoral funds and participating in official debates, with some magistrates suggesting his candidacy is legally unviable.