Lula Leads First Round but Ties with Flávio Bolsonaro in Second Round Simulation

A new Nexus/BTG Pactual poll released on Monday, August 10, shows President Lula leading the stimulated first round for the 2026 presidential election with 40 percent of the vote. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 35 percent. Other candidates in the first round include Ronaldo Caiado at 5 percent, Renan Santos at 4 percent, and Romeu Zema at 3 percent. In a simulated second round matchup between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the results are 47 percent for Lula and 44 percent for Bolsonaro, which constitutes a technical tie given the 2 percent margin of error. In other second round simulations, Lula leads numerically against Ronaldo Caiado (46 percent to 42 percent), Romeu Zema (47 percent to 40 percent), and Renan Santos (46 percent to 37 percent). The survey also measured rejection rates, with Renan Santos at 54 percent, Flávio Bolsonaro at 52 percent, and Lula at 49 percent. The poll surveyed 2,001 voters between August 7 and 9 with a 95 percent confidence level. While center and center right sources focused primarily on the polling data, the center leaning source provided additional context regarding political scandals involving Lula's former chief of staff and the selection of Alfredo Gaspar as Flávio Bolsonaro's running mate.