Lula Leads in New CNT/MDA Election Poll

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a new CNT/MDA poll released on Tuesday, September 15. In a simulated second round matchup, Lula holds 47.3% of voting intentions compared to 40% for Flávio Bolsonaro. This lead is outside the poll's margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. In a first round scenario, Lula leads with 40.5%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 30.4% and writer Augusto Cury at 6%. Other first round candidates include Ronaldo Caiado at 3%, Renan Santos at 2.7%, Pablo Marçal at 1.8%, and Romeu Zema at 1%.

Additional second round simulations show Lula leading against other potential opponents. He holds 46.4% against Ronaldo Caiado, 45.3% against Augusto Cury, 47.7% against Romeu Zema, and 47.3% against Renan Santos. In the first round scenario, 6% of respondents indicated blank or null votes, while 7.5% remain undecided. In the second round matchup between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, blank and null votes are 10.2% and undecideds are 2.5%.

Reports from center right sources highlight a narrowing gap between the two leaders compared to August data, noting that Lula's lead in the first round decreased from 13.7 to 10.1 percentage points. These sources also report that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are technically tied in spontaneous rejection rates. The poll interviewed 2,002 voters between September 9 and 13 via face to face interviews. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under protocol BR-06902/2026.