Marine Le Pen Holds Early Lead in French Presidential Race

Marine Le Pen of the right wing populist National Rally party currently holds a significant lead in polls for the upcoming French presidential election. With the vote scheduled for April and May of next year, five new polls place her between 32 percent and 36 percent of the first round vote. This puts her at least 13 points ahead of her closest rival, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe. In three different second round scenarios, Le Pen emerges as the winner, including one where she defeats Philippe 55 percent to 45 percent.

Emmanuel Macron cannot run for a third consecutive term, leaving a fragmented center to find a successor. There are at least 15 potential candidates across the center political spectrum, ranging from socialists to republicans. This fragmentation creates a risk that the final election could be a contest between two extremes: Le Pen and left wing populist leader Jean Luc Melenchon. Clement Beaune, a former minister under Macron, stated that Le Pen has a genuine possibility of winning this time and that her victory or defeat depends on the center.

While some center right framing emphasizes the formidable nature of Le Pen's lead and the specific strategies used by centrist winners in other European democracies to defeat populists, other center right framing focuses on the lacklustre nature of the current candidates and the problem of having too many of them.