New Quaest Poll Shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Technical Tie for Second Round

A new national poll by Quaest shows President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for a potential second round of the 2026 presidential election. Lula holds 42 percent of the intention of vote compared to 41 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro, with a margin of error of two percentage points. In the first round scenario, Lula leads with 37 percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 29 to 30 percent depending on the inclusion of candidate Pablo Marçal. Augusto Cury has emerged as a significant third place contender with 10 percent of the vote, a rise attributed to his appeal among independent voters where he leads with 24 percent.

Analysts from center and center right perspectives highlight different drivers for these shifts. Center leaning reports emphasize that Lula is experiencing a negative trend in approval and voting intention, citing the Lulinha investigation and economic concerns. Meanwhile, center right reports focus on strategic errors by Flávio Bolsonaro, specifically his public indication of a health minister which may have alienated potential allies like Augusto Cury.

Rejection rates remain high for the two frontrunners, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 55 percent and Lula at 53 percent. In contrast, Augusto Cury has a rejection rate of 25 percent. Cury has attributed his growth to a movement of pacification in the country, while some rivals suggest his rise is due to aggressive internet marketing strategies. The poll also indicates that the number of undecided voters has dropped from 51 percent to 42 percent in recent days, suggesting a heating up of the electoral environment.