New Research Links Climate Change and Food Insecurity to Increased Global Conflict Risk

New research from the Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index (CADI) indicates that climate change and food insecurity are reshaping global agricultural productivity and increasing the risk of conflict. Developed by Hannes Mueller and colleagues, the index maps how severe droughts and extreme weather are damaging harvests, particularly in tropical regions. Experts warn that within the next 25 years, nearly half of the world's population could live in areas where farms produce less food.

Agricultural losses are already being felt in several countries. Reports highlight impacts in Nigeria, as well as various other nations including Australia, Argentina, Moldova, Romania, Sudan, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Burundi, Paraguay, and El Salvador. Mueller specifically noted that Northern Africa is a region requiring significant attention due to the severity of the situation.

Climate change is compounded by geopolitical tensions. The war in Ukraine has disrupted grain markets, and the Iran war's impact on the Strait of Hormuz has increased fuel and fertilizer costs for farmers. These combined pressures can undermine governments, drive migration, and facilitate recruitment for armed groups in unstable societies.

Interestingly, the research suggests that gains in productivity can also fuel violence. As some marginal lands become more valuable, they attract investors and create competition for ownership. In Sudan, for example, projected increases in food production may create internal tensions between winners and losers. This trend extends to wealthy regions, where large agricultural companies are buying up land in European mountains to secure future grape harvests, displacing local farmers.