Quaest Polls Reveal Competitive State and Presidential Races Across Brazil

New polling data from Quaest reveals a highly competitive political landscape across several Brazilian states and for the upcoming presidential race. In the race for the government of Bahia, former Salvador mayor ACM Neto of the União Brasil party and current governor Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT party are in a technical tie. Neto holds 39 percent of voting intentions while Rodrigues holds 37 percent, with a margin of error of three percentage points. In a simulated second round, Neto leads with 44 percent against 41 percent for Rodrigues.

On the national stage, presidential polling shows a divided electorate. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains strong leads in states such as Maranhão with 58 percent and Bahia with 50 percent. Conversely, Flávio Bolsonaro of the PL party leads in Roraima with 52 percent and Acre with 42 percent. The two candidates are in a technical tie in the largest electoral colleges: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro. Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD is the only third party candidate leading in a state, holding 32 percent in Goiás.

Other state gubernatorial races show varying leaders. In Roraima, Arthur Henrique of the PL leads with 60 percent over Soldado Sampaio of the Republicanos at 27 percent. In Sergipe, Governor Fábio Mitidieri of the PSD leads with 40 percent against Valmir de Francisquinho of the Republicanos at 28 percent. In Espírito Santo, Ricardo Ferraço of the MDB leads with 35 percent, followed by Lorenzo Pazolini of the Republicanos at 28 percent. In Goiás, Governor Daniel Vilela of the MDB leads with 37 percent, followed by Marconi Perillo at 20 percent.

Senate races also show notable trends. In Bahia, Rui Costa of the PT leads with 23 percent, followed by Jaques Wagner at 17 percent. In Goiás, Gracinha Caiado of the União Brasil leads with 21 percent, while Gustavo Gayer of the PL follows with 12 percent.