Research suggests over 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on U.S. military secrets

Research published on Thursday by the nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) indicates that more than 150 wallets on the prediction market Polymarket International may have traded using inside U.S. military information. The analysis identified 152 exceptionally successful wallets, which the researchers dubbed Orcas, that focused on military and defense markets. These wallets collectively made 8 million dollars with an average win rate of 97.2 percent. ACDC defines these Orcas as traders who placed cumulative wagers of at least 2,500 dollars within an hour on outcomes with odds of 35 percent or less, often cashing out and disappearing after a successful bet.

The research suggests that these potential insider trades may attract copycat bets from automated trading bots and deep pocketed traders known as Whales. ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi stated that it would be naive to assume foreign intelligence agencies are not monitoring this observable activity. Examples cited include bets placed on U.S. military action in Iran and U.S. Israeli air strikes on Tehran.

Polymarket spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment, though the company previously stated it has strict controls and has referred dozens of wallets to authorities. This follows a separate case involving a U.S. soldier charged in April with using classified information to bet on the removal of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro. The Department of Defense declined to comment on the findings. ACDC noted that while these wallets are the most likely to be trading on secrets, some results could be attributed to luck.