Saudi Arabia Faces Mounting Threats from Iran and Allies

Saudi Arabia is facing increasing threats from Iran and its allies, including Houthi rebels and Iraqi militias. Houthi rebels have recently seized the port city of Mokha and a Red Sea island from Saudi backed Yemeni government forces, which increases their ability to block Saudi shipments through the Bab el Mandeb. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has shut down a major pipeline leading from eastern oil fields to the Red Sea following drone attacks originating in Iraq, where Iran supports powerful militias. Regional officials told the Associated Press that the Houthis have assisted these Iraqi militias in their attacks.

These developments have impacted Saudi oil exports to Asia, which dropped from approximately 3.4 million barrels a day in June to 128,000 in August, before recovering to 700,000 this month according to Kpler data. The situation follows a period of instability that began after the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas on Israel. Following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, which effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

Experts suggest that Saudi Arabia has few options to address these threats. Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, described the situation as frustrating for the kingdom. Neil Quilliam of Chatham House noted that while Houthi gains increase pressure on Riyadh to respond, every available option carries significant costs. A Saudi official, speaking on condition of anonymity, stated that the kingdom would defend itself and work with partners, including the United States, to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.