Southern Europe Faces Increasing Wildfire Risks Amid Heatwaves

The number of summer days with conditions favorable to wildfires in Southern Europe has more than doubled over the last 45 years. According to a study published in Scientific Reports by a research group led by the University of Groningen, these conditions have intensified across the Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy, and Greece. In some areas of France and Spain, the intensity of heat, drought, and wind increased by up to 50 percent between 2016 and 2025 compared to the 1981 to 2010 period. In some regions, the number of highly favorable fire days rose from fewer than 10 days per summer to approximately 25 days in the last decade.

Despite the increase in risky conditions, the annual number of fires in the last decade has decreased by about 40 percent compared to the 1981 to 2010 average. Researchers attribute this decline to improved fire management, including better firefighter training and public awareness campaigns. However, the fires that do occur are becoming more intense and longer lasting, often exceeding available suppression capacities. These patterns are linked to large scale climate models, including El Nino and atmospheric pressure differences over the North Atlantic.

Current heatwaves are exacerbating these threats. High winds and heat have forced evacuations from Greece to the UK. In Hungary, the government has banned outdoor fires and asked businesses to reduce electricity consumption. Slovakia has established cooling stations in Bratislava to provide air conditioned spaces and water to the public. Officials warn that Greece, Italy, and parts of central Europe remain the most vulnerable in the coming weeks.