Stanford Study Finds Entry Level Employment Falling in AI Exposed Jobs

New research from Stanford University economists indicates that artificial intelligence is contributing to a significant decline in entry level job opportunities for younger workers. According to the August 2026 paper titled 'Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence', employment levels for workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI exposed occupations are 19 percent lower than those of their peers in fields less exposed to AI disruption. This gap has widened from 13 percent the previous year.

The researchers utilized anonymized, high frequency payroll data from HR management company ADP to reach these conclusions. To determine AI exposure, the team used a labor market impact gauge and the Anthropic Economic Index, which analyzes how the Claude model is used in various occupations. A similar report based on Gemini usage was recently published by Google.

Lead researcher Erik Brynjolfsson stated that the effects on entry level workers are real, persistent, and widening. The study suggests that while overall employment levels may remain stable, the on ramp for those starting their careers is closing. The impact is most pronounced in roles requiring codified knowledge that can be taught through textbooks or written procedures. Conversely, jobs involving mentorship, practice, and real world exposure are more likely to see AI as a complement rather than a replacement.

The research found that the impact on the 22 to 25 age group has primarily resulted in fewer available jobs rather than lower wages. Additionally, the study noted that higher education may act as a buffer, as occupations with a higher share of college graduates showed more muted differences in employment effects.