STF Crisis and Judicial Reform Take Center Stage in 2026 Presidential Race

A crisis within the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) has emerged as a central issue in the lead up to Brazil's 2026 presidential elections. The tension involves investigations by the Federal Police and the Procuradoria Geral da Republica (PGR) regarding the Banco Master and a report involving former banker Daniel Vorcaro. In response to these developments, Justice Alexandre de Moraes requested the inclusion of Andre Mendonca in the fake news inquiry, a request that STF President Luiz Edson Fachin denied. Fachin has signaled the possible closure of the fake news inquiry and has given the PGR, the Federal Police, and Mendonca five business days to provide statements on the matter.

Political analysts suggest that these investigations could significantly influence the 2026 succession. Recent simulations indicate a technical tie or a slight advantage for Flavio Bolsonaro over Lula, though the scenario remains fluid. Candidates have released government plans detailing their approach to the judiciary. Flavio Bolsonaro proposes limiting the STF by ending original criminal jurisdiction for parliamentarians and restricting monocratic decisions. Augusto Cury advocates for a deep restructuring, including fixed eight year terms for ministers, reducing the number of justices from 11 to 9, and removing the President's power to appoint ministers. In contrast, Lula's plan does not directly mention the STF but emphasizes maintaining dialogue with the judiciary while respecting the autonomy of powers. Ronaldo Caiado focuses on integrating artificial intelligence into the justice system without proposing structural reforms to the court.