Super El Niño Predicted to Be Among Most Intense in Recorded History

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a greater than 90 percent probability of a very strong El Niño event occurring between late 2026 and early 2027. There is a 69 percent chance that this episode will be the most intense since records began in 1950, with sea surface temperature anomalies potentially reaching 2.5 degrees Celsius or more during the final quarter of 2026. Current measurements already show rapid warming in the equatorial Pacific, with some depth anomalies reaching 10 degrees Celsius.

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise and trade winds weaken, triggering global weather shifts. While the Northern Hemisphere is expected to be most affected, the phenomenon typically increases rainfall in the U.S. Southwest and southern Brazil, while increasing drought risks in Indonesia, southern Africa, and parts of northern and northeastern Brazil. A super El Niño is generally defined by scientists as an event where temperatures rise by at least 2 degrees Celsius above average.

In Brazil, the phenomenon is already causing impacts, with July rainfall in the South ranging from 30 to 90 percent above average. This creates significant economic risks for agriculture, infrastructure, and insurance. Between 2022 and 2024, climate events caused estimated losses of 184 billion reais in Brazil, yet only 9 percent of those losses were covered by insurance. Center leaning coverage emphasizes these specific economic vulnerabilities and regional insurance gaps in Brazil, while center left leaning coverage frames the event as a global systemic risk affecting fisheries, ski seasons, and humanitarian aid needs.