Tensions Mount as US and Iran Remain Deadlocked Over Conflict End Date

President Donald Trump has stated that the war with Iran will continue until after the US midterm elections on November 3 and 4, arguing that the conflict will lose political meaning for Tehran after the polls. However, this timeline is contested by current events on the ground. Military operations have intensified in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant increase in global oil prices. In Iran, Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Parliament's National Security Commission, has asserted that negotiations are pointless until the United States accepts all of Tehran's terms.

The conflict has expanded across the Middle East. In Yemen, the Saudi-Houthi ceasefire has collapsed, with Houthi forces seizing more territory and targeting ships in the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Additionally, a critical east-west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was recently struck, an attack that Riyadh has not yet attributed to a specific group despite the activity of pro-Iran militias in Iraq. Meanwhile, Israel continues bombardment in Lebanon and faces conflict in the West Bank, where several OECD countries have sanctioned Israeli settlement products.

Diplomatic efforts remain stalled. While Iran is scheduled to meet with Gulf states and Iraq in Oman on Monday to discuss secure routes in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran conditions the reopening of the waterway on the cessation of US attacks. Simultaneously, the US has attempted to mediate the Russia-Ukraine war through representatives including Jared Kushner and Steve Witcoff, though no concrete progress has been reported. Ukraine continues to request Patriot missiles and drones while facing internal opposition and recruitment challenges, and Russia remains resilient despite attacks on its fuel supplies.