UK Forecasters Warn of Unprecedented El Niño Event

The United Kingdom's Met Office has warned that the current El Niño event is likely to be the most intense in more than a century. Forecasters predict that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean could rise by more than 3 degrees Celsius, a level described by Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting, as unprecedented in modern climate records. Typical El Niño events see temperature rises between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius. This surge in heat, combined with human induced climate change, makes it very likely that 2027 will be the hottest year on record globally. Some scientists suggest global temperatures could temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average during 2027.

The impacts of this event are expected to be felt worldwide. The Met Office predicts severe droughts in the West Pacific and South America, as well as heightened risks of drought in north east Australia and southern Africa. In contrast, northwestern Europe and the UK are expected to experience wetter and stormier conditions as autumn and winter arrive. In Brazil, the phenomenon is expected to bring above average temperatures to much of the country, with a trend of decreased rainfall in the North and Northeast that may favor the spread of wildfires.

Other experts have suggested the event could be even more extreme. Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth noted that some projections suggest a rise of 4 degrees Celsius, which could make this the strongest El Niño in 500 to 1,000 years. The UN has warned that these conditions could push 50 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year. Professor Hayley Fowler noted that the event could reach levels seen in 1877 to 1878, a period that caused widespread famines and millions of deaths.