Analysis of Israel's Six Month Conflict with Iran

After six months of inconclusive hostilities, Israel may find itself in a worse position than it was before the war. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had long urged the United States to attack Iran, saw the conflict begin in late February when President Donald Trump joined Israel in launching the war. However, Trump later called for a ceasefire in April due to soaring oil prices and souring public opinion, though he has since ordered new strikes and declared economic warfare.

On the first day of the conflict, Israel killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While some analysts argue this was a strategic success, others suggest it may remove a leader who was reluctant to pursue full nuclear weapons. Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence analyst, described the effort as a colossal failure of Israeli strategy. Conversely, Alex Grinberg of the Turan Research Center stated that Israel achieved its strategic goals by damaging Iran's nuclear infrastructure and economic capacity.

Public opinion within Israel reflects significant dissatisfaction, with a June survey by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Agam Institute indicating that 92 percent of Israelis believe Iran won or gained more from the conflict. This comes ahead of elections on October 27. Iranian counter strikes killed 25 people in Israel and four in the occupied West Bank, though Iran has recently focused attacks on Gulf Arab states hosting US troops.

Both sources, which are center leaning, frame the outcome as potentially counterproductive for Netanyahu, noting that the Islamic republic appears emboldened despite the loss of its leader.