Augusto Cury surges to third place in new Brazilian presidential polls

Writer and psychiatrist Augusto Cury has seen a significant rise in voting intentions for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, climbing to third place in two separate polls released on August 31. According to the BTG/Nexus poll, Cury jumped from 2 percent to 11 percent in the first round. The Atlas/Bloomberg poll also showed growth for Cury, who rose from 1.6 percent in July to 7.8 percent. This surge is attributed to a boom in social media engagement, including millions of video views and a gain of approximately 2 million Instagram followers, as well as appearances in televised debates and interviews.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro continue to lead the race. In the Atlas/Bloomberg first round scenario, Lula holds 43.4 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro holds 33.7 percent. In the BTG/Nexus first round scenario, Lula leads with 39 percent compared to 33 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro. Other candidates mentioned include Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, all of whom remain in the single digits.

Second round simulations show a tighter race between the two frontrunners. The Atlas/Bloomberg poll places Lula at 47.1 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 42.6 percent. The BTG/Nexus poll shows a technical tie, with Lula at 46 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45 percent. Lula also maintains leads or technical ties in simulated runoffs against other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema.

Outlets with different political leanings framed Cury's rise differently. Center right sources described him as a viable third way candidate who broke the dominance of the two main poles. In contrast, a center left source reported that Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign dismissed Cury's growth as a mere struggle for leadership among minor candidates, referring to him as the largest of the dwarfs.