Brazil Reports Record Grain Forecasts Amid Mixed Economic and Trade Indicators

Brazil's grain and oilseed production for the 2025/2026 cycle is estimated to reach a record 361.7 million tonnes, according to the National Supply Company (Conab). This figure represents a 2.6 percent increase over the previous season, driven by record production of soy and corn. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) provided a slightly lower estimate of 352.9 million tonnes for 2026, which still marks a 2 percent increase over 2025. While soy and corn remain dominant, the IBGE noted a decline in rice production of 11.2 percent and a decrease in wheat production of 18.9 percent.

In the livestock sector, Conab expects total meat production to exceed 34 million tonnes in 2026, a 2 percent increase from 2025. This growth is supported by gains in poultry and pork, although beef production is expected to decline slightly. IBGE data for the second quarter of 2026 showed a 1.3 percent increase in cattle slaughter, while pork and poultry slaughter reached record levels for that period.

Trade data from the second week of September show a surge in coffee exports of over 50 percent and a 75.6 percent jump in petroleum shipments compared to the previous year. Soy exports also rose by 9.2 percent. Conversely, corn exports fell by 16.7 percent, and beef exports dropped by 30.3 percent, partly due to the end of a lower import quota in China.

Domestic economic indicators show mixed results. Retail sales fell 0.8 percent in July compared to June, according to the IBGE. Analysts suggest this reflects a gradual economic deceleration influenced by a restrictive monetary policy and a Selic rate of 14.0 percent. In the energy sector, Cepea reported that ethanol prices in Sao Paulo rose by over 2 percent last week because rains delayed sugarcane milling.

On the international stage, the World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that a failure to reform its rules could cost the global economy 5 percent of its GDP by 2050. The organization highlighted challenges such as rising protectionism, state subsidies, and the need for emerging economies to increase market openness.

In other news, a poll by Indexa and Broadcast for the 2026 presidential election shows Lula leading with 38 percent of intentions in the first round, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 34 percent, though the result is considered a technical tie. Additionally, Amazon paid a 5 million reais fine to narrator Galvão Bueno following the rescission of their contract in May.