Datafolha Poll Shows Increased Voter Concern and Decision Ahead of Presidential Election

A recent Datafolha poll reveals that 46% of Brazilian voters are more concerned about the results of the upcoming presidential election than they were in 2022. According to the survey, 28% of respondents report the same level of concern, while 24% feel less concerned and 2% did not answer. The poll, which heard from 2,002 voters across 125 cities on September 1 and 2, carries a margin of error of two percentage points with a 95% confidence level.

Despite the increased anxiety, a majority of voters are more certain of their choice. The data shows that 57% of respondents are more decided on who to vote for than they were in 2022, while 32% are equally decided and 11% are less decided. Among supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula, there is a technical tie in decision levels, with 68% of Bolsonaro supporters and 61% of Lula supporters reporting they are more decided. For voters not aligned with either camp, 40% are more decided and 41% are equally decided.

Concern levels vary significantly by candidate preference. Supporters of Flávio Bolsonaro show the highest levels of apprehension, with 63% stating they are more concerned than in 2022. This group is in a technical tie with supporters of Renan Santos at 59%, Ronaldo Caiado at 56%, Augusto Cury at 55%, and Romeu Zema at 52%. In contrast, supporters of President Lula reported the lowest level of concern, with only 30% saying they are more worried than in 2022.

Regarding active mobilization, 32% of voters say they are less engaged in campaigning for a candidate compared to 2022, while 45% remain equally engaged and 18% are more active. In terms of voting intentions, one source reports that Lula holds 38% of the first round intentions, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 33% and Augusto Cury with 8%.