Datafolha Poll Shows Lula Leading First Round with Flávio Bolsonaro in Second

A new Datafolha poll released on Thursday shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the first round of the 2026 presidential race with 38 percent of voting intentions, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 33 percent. The survey also highlights a significant rise for writer Augusto Cury, who climbed six percentage points to reach 8 percent. In a simulated second round between the two leaders, Lula holds 46 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro holds 44 percent, a result that constitutes a technical tie within the two percentage point margin of error. The poll, commissioned by TV Globo and Folha de S.Paulo, surveyed 2,002 voters across 125 cities between September 1 and 2.

Demographic data indicates that Lula maintains strong support in the Northeast at 53 percent and among Catholics at 44 percent. Flávio Bolsonaro leads in the South with 44 percent and among evangelicals with 45 percent. Augusto Cury saw his most notable growth among voters aged 25 to 34, rising from 1 percent to 14 percent. Rejection rates remain high for the frontrunners, with 47 percent of respondents stating they would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro and 45 percent saying the same for Lula.

Government approval ratings show that 42 percent of voters consider the current administration bad or awful, while 31 percent rate it as great or good. The poll also tested a scenario including Pablo Marçal, who is currently ineligible but registered his candidacy. In that scenario, Marçal holds 2 percent of the vote, with minimal changes to the other candidates' numbers.

Outlets with a center lean focused on the strategic implications of the results, noting that Cury's rise creates an obstacle for the two leaders to capture independent voters. They also highlighted the impact of recent scandals involving the STF and the Banco Master. Center left outlets emphasized the preservation of regional strongholds for both Lula and Flávio while detailing Cury's specific gains among youth and higher education groups. Center right outlets provided a detailed breakdown of the spontaneous and stimulated scenarios, noting the technical tie in the second round.