Datafolha Poll Shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Technical Tie for Presidency
5 sources · Brazil
Who reported this
- G1
- UOL
- Folha de S.Paulo
- Estadao
- Gazeta do Povo
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- Centre
- Centre-right
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A new Datafolha poll released on Friday indicates a technical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated second round for the 2026 presidency. Lula holds 46 percent of intentions while Flávio Bolsonaro holds 44 percent. In the stimulated first round, Lula leads with 39 percent compared to 35 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro. Other candidates in the first round include Augusto Cury at 6 percent, Ronaldo Caiado at 4 percent, Renan Santos at 3 percent, and Romeu Zema at 2 percent. The survey of 2,002 voters was conducted between September 8 and 10 with a margin of error of two percentage points.
Demographic data shows a polarized electorate. Lula leads among voters with a family income of up to two minimum salaries, Catholics, and residents of the Northeast. Flávio Bolsonaro leads among those with higher incomes, evangelical voters, and residents of the South. In the Southeast, the two candidates are in a technical tie. Both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro share the highest rejection rates, with 46 percent of respondents stating they would not vote for either candidate.
The poll was conducted during a crisis in the Supreme Federal Court involving Justice André Mendonça and Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Center left sources frame the results as a sign of stability for Lula despite the judicial turmoil. Center right sources emphasize the growth of Flávio Bolsonaro and the potential for a shift in momentum. Center sources highlight that the poll was finalized before the public revelation that Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation in the Dark Horse case.
Regional polls also released on Friday show Tarcísio de Freitas leading the São Paulo gubernatorial race with 49 percent in the first round against Fernando Haddad's 29 percent. In Pernambuco, Raquel Lyra leads with 47 percent against João Campos' 42 percent. In the Federal District, Celina Leão leads the gubernatorial race with 40 percent.
How each side framed it
- Centre-left
- Framed the results as stability for Lula while highlighting the potential negative impact of Flávio Bolsonaro's legal investigations.
- Centre
- Provided a neutral breakdown of the data and contextualized the results within the timeline of the Supreme Court crisis.
- Centre-right
- Focused on the technical tie and the growth of Flávio Bolsonaro's numbers.
Sources
- Centre-right Estadao: Lula government is disapproved by 50% and approved by 47%, Datafolha indicates
- Centre-right Estadao: Lula has 46% in the second round against 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro, Datafolha says
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Senate in Pernambuco has Marília Arraes (PDT) with 18% and Humberto Costa (PT) with 16%
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Senate dispute in Minas has triple tie of Marília Campos (PT), Aécio Neves (PSDB) and Carlos Viana (PSD)
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Allies of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro speak of stability in the election despite crisis in STF
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula are rejected by 46% of voters
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Lula has 39%, and Flávio Bolsonaro, 35% in the 1st round; rivals tie in the 2nd
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Celina Leão (PP) leads with 40% of intentions for the DF Government
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Eduardo Paes (PSD) leads with 43% of voting intentions in Rio
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Lula leads among the poorest and Flávio, in other income brackets; see poll by segments
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Tarcísio leads in SP against Haddad and could win dispute in first round
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Raquel Lyra has 47% for the Government of Pernambuco against 42% for João Campos
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Cleitinho maintains lead in MG with 37%; Patrus has 13%, Kalil, 11%
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: 42% think Lula government is bad or terrible, and 32%, good or great
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Benedita da Silva (PT) leads with 18% Senate dispute in Rio
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Marina, Tebet, André do Prado and Derrite tie in Senate dispute in SP
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Datafolha: Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) and Leila do Vôlei (PDT) lead dispute for Senate for DF
- Centre-left G1: Datafolha releases new voting intention survey for president; see the numbers
- Centre-left G1: Datafolha 1st round: see voting intention by region, gender, age, political identification, color and religion in the scenario without Pablo Marçal
- Centre-left G1: Datafolha 1st round: see voting intention by region, gender, age, political identification, color and religion in the scenario with Pablo Marçal
- Centre-right Gazeta do Povo: The numbers of the new Datafolha poll for president
- Centre-left UOL: Datafolha poll shows Lula with 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 44% in a possible 2nd round
- Centre-left UOL: Datafolha: Lula leads among the poorest and Flávio, in other income brackets; see research by segments
- Centre-left UOL: Datafolha: Allies of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro speak of stability in the election despite the crisis in the STF
100% of the statements in this article were traced back to the source articles listed above.