Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in New Presidential Poll

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro are tied with 46 percent of the vote each in a simulated second round runoff, according to a new Meio/Ideia poll released Wednesday. This result marks a shift from August, when Lula held a 5.5 percentage point lead over Bolsonaro. The two candidates are also technically tied in the stimulated first round, with Lula at 38.4 percent and Bolsonaro at 37.3 percent, as well as in the spontaneous first round and rejection rates. Rejection levels for both are nearly identical, with 46.6 percent of respondents refusing to vote for Lula and 45.7 percent refusing to vote for Bolsonaro.

Other candidates in the stimulated first round include writer Augusto Cury at 6.6 percent, followed by Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado at 4 percent each. Romeu Zema and Pablo Marçal both registered 1.5 percent, though sources note that Marçal is currently ineligible. In other second round simulations, Lula maintains 46 percent and is technically tied with Ronaldo Caiado at 42 percent, while leading Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema.

Center right sources highlight that Lula is in his worst first round position and suggest that potential abstention could further worsen his standing. Center sources emphasize that these figures represent the lowest levels for Lula and the highest for Bolsonaro across nine rounds of the Meio/Ideia series. The poll, which interviewed 1,500 voters between September 4 and 7, has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.