Datafolha Poll Shows Tight Presidential Race Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

A new Datafolha poll indicates a highly polarized presidential race for 2026, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro appearing in a technical tie in a national second round simulation. The survey, conducted between August 18 and 20 with 2,058 voters, places Lula at 47 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 43 percent, within a margin of error of two percentage points. In a separate analysis of valid votes, one report lists Lula at 52 percent and Bolsonaro at 48 percent.

Regional data shows a divided landscape across key states. Flávio Bolsonaro leads in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and the Distrito Federal. In São Paulo, he holds 47 percent against Lula's 42 percent in a second round scenario. In Rio de Janeiro, he leads with 49 percent to Lula's 40 percent, and in the Distrito Federal, he holds 51 percent to 39 percent. Conversely, Lula leads in Pernambuco with 62 percent against 29 percent. In Minas Gerais, the two candidates are in a technical tie with Lula at 46 percent and Bolsonaro at 42 percent, given a three point margin of error.

First round simulations show a more fragmented field. In São Paulo, Bolsonaro leads with 37 percent, followed by Lula at 33 percent and Renan Santos at 5 percent. In Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema remains a significant factor with 10 percent of the first round intentions. Analysis of voter migration suggests Bolsonaro inherits partial support from other right wing candidates in a runoff, including 60 percent of Zema's voters, 54 percent of Ronaldo Caiado's, and 48 percent of Renan Santos's.

The polling occurs amid legal controversies for both candidates. Lula faces investigations involving his son, Fábio Luiz Lula da Silva, regarding allegations of corruption and influence peddling. Flávio Bolsonaro is facing an ongoing inquiry known as the Dark Horse case. Center leaning reports suggest the electorate remains largely unengaged or disenchanted, while center left framing emphasizes that the current scandals have had a minimal impact on the overall voting numbers.