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Polls Show Lula Leading Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026 Presidential Race

evening · · thread: Genial/Quaest Polls Show Divided Presidential Race Across Brazilian States

2 sources · Brazil

Who reported this

  • CNN Brasil Brazil · Centre · Rubens Menin (MRV)
  • Gazeta do Povo Brazil · Centre-right · Grupo Paranaense de Comunicacao

What the colours mean

  • Left
  • Centre-left
  • Centre
  • Centre-right
  • Right
  • A hatched block means the outlet is affiliated with, or controlled by, a state.

Political lean describes where an outlet sits within the politics of its own country. It is never a position on a single global scale.

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The owner of each outlet is listed as a matter of record, not as a judgement about the outlet.

Every source for this story reports from Brazil.

Recent polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. According to a Datafolha survey conducted between August 18 and 19, Lula holds 39 percent of intentions in the first round compared to 33 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro. A separate poll by Nexus/BTG Pactual also places Lula ahead in the first round with 41 percent against 36 percent for Bolsonaro. In a simulated second round between the two, Datafolha shows Lula at 47 percent and Bolsonaro at 43 percent, while Nexus/BTG Pactual reports Lula at 47 percent and Bolsonaro at 44 percent.

Datafolha provided demographic breakdowns indicating that Lula leads among women, Black voters, Catholics, and those with a family income of up to two minimum wages. Flávio Bolsonaro leads among evangelicals and voters in higher income brackets. Other candidates mentioned in the polls include Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema, who collectively hold a smaller share of the vote.

Outlets with different political leanings framed these results differently. A center leaning outlet focused on the demographic divides and Lula's lead across various groups. In contrast, a center right leaning outlet emphasized that Lula's lead narrows in a second round matchup, describing the results as a technical tie within the margin of error.

How each side framed it

Centre
Focused on the specific demographic groups where Lula maintains a lead.
Centre-right
Highlighted the narrowing gap in the second round to suggest a technical tie.

Sources

100% of the statements in this article were traced back to the source articles listed above.