Elderly Voters Show Higher Political Engagement and Preference for Lula as Youth Participation Drops

Data from Datafolha and the TSE indicate that Brazilian voters aged 70 and older show a greater interest in politics and a preference for Lula (PT) compared to younger demographics. This age group now represents 10.8 percent of the electorate, up from 9.5 percent in 2022, while the overall population of people over 60 has grown to 23.6 percent. In contrast, the number of 16 and 17 year olds who registered to vote decreased by 23 percent, falling from 2.1 million to 1.6 million. This decline exceeds the population decrease for that age group, which fell by 5.6 percent according to IBGE projections.

Surveys on voting disposition show that 76 percent of those over 70 would vote even if it were not mandatory, compared to 50 percent of those aged 16 to 24. Political interest also varies significantly, with 37 percent of the 70 plus group reporting great interest in politics, while only 14 percent of the youngest group feel the same. Luciana Chong, director of Datafolha, noted that this trend is contraintuitive because young people are typically expected to be the most interested in voting.

Regarding candidate preference, aggregated data shows that 46 percent of voters aged 70 plus intend to vote for Lula, while 35 percent prefer Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). In the 60 to 69 age bracket, 44 percent prefer Lula and 31 percent prefer Flávio Bolsonaro. Factors contributing to the decline in youth registration include increased bureaucracy for obtaining voter IDs and a lack of promotional campaigns compared to the previous cycle.

Looking toward 2026, there are concerns regarding general voter discouragement. Chong suggested that the mobilization seen in previous elections to defend democracy may have waned, as Lula is not emphasizing that theme as strongly and voters may perceive Flávio Bolsonaro differently than Jair Bolsonaro.