Quaest Polls Show Diverse Regional Trends in Brazilian Gubernatorial and Presidential Races
3 sources · Brazil
Who reported this
- G1
- CNN Brasil
- Folha de S.Paulo
What the colours mean
- Left
- Centre-left
- Centre
- Centre-right
- Right
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Every source for this story reports from Brazil.
A series of Quaest polls commissioned by TV Globo and conducted between September 4 and 7 reveals the current state of several key electoral races in Brazil. In the presidential contest, data from Minas Gerais shows a numerical shift where Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) now leads President Lula (PT) with 40% to 37% in a second round scenario. Center left sources frame this as a significant alert for the president because Minas Gerais has historically mirrored the national winner since 1989. In other states, Lula maintains a strong lead in Pernambuco with 57% in a second round matchup against Flávio Bolsonaro. In the Distrito Federal, Flávio Bolsonaro leads the presidential race with 31% compared to Lula's 28%.
For gubernatorial races, incumbent governors and strong favorites maintain leads in several states. In São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leads with 42% in the first round, while Fernando Haddad (PT) has 27%. In the Distrito Federal, Governor Celina Leão (PP) leads with 35%, followed by José Arruda (PSD) at 18% and Leandro Grass (PT) at 17%. In Rio de Janeiro, former mayor Eduardo Paes (PSD) leads with 39%, while Douglas Ruas (PL) has 18%. In Pernambuco, Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) leads with 43% over João Campos (PSB), who has 37%.
Senate races also show varied results. In the Distrito Federal, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) leads with 26%. In São Paulo, Marina Silva (Rede) and Guilherme Derrite (PP) are tied at 14%. In Minas Gerais, Marília Campos (PT) leads with 13%, followed by Aécio Neves (PSDB) at 10%. In Pernambuco, Marília Arraes (PDT) leads with 17%. The polls generally maintain a confidence level of 95% with margins of error typically ranging between two and three percentage points.
How each side framed it
- Centre-left
- These outlets emphasized the strategic alarm for President Lula regarding the numerical shift in Minas Gerais.
- Centre
- These outlets focused on providing a broad, factual summary of the numbers across multiple races and candidates.
Sources
- Centre CNN Brasil: Quaest: Lula has 57% in the 2nd round in PE; Flávio, 26%
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Quaest: Cleitinho leads with 32% in Minas Gerais; Patrus, Kalil and Simões fight for 2nd place
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Quaest: Eduardo Paes has 39% and Douglas Ruas, 18%, in RJ
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Quaest: Raquel Lyra has 43% and João Campos 37% in Pernambuco
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Quaest: Celina leads in the 1st round in the DF with 35%, against 18% for Arruda and 17% for Grass
- Centre Folha de S.Paulo: Quaest: Tarcísio has 42% in 1st round for SP Government, against 27% for Haddad
- Centre-left G1: Quaest: see how the presidential race is in SP, RJ, MG, PE and DF
- Centre-left G1: Numerical turnaround in MG triggers alert for Lula; read analysis by Felipe Nunes
- Centre-left G1: Quaest in DF: see voting intention for governor by sex, race, age, education, religion, income and political identification
100% of the statements in this article were traced back to the source articles listed above.