Genial/Quaest Polls Show Divided Presidential Race Across Brazilian States

New polling from Genial/Quaest reveals a divided landscape for the 2026 Brazilian presidential race across several states, with President Lula leading in Bahia and Ceará while facing technical ties or deficits in Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais, and Goiás.

In Bahia, Lula leads with 52 percent of intentions compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 18 percent. In Ceará, Lula holds a lead at 55 percent over Bolsonaro's 22 percent. The race is tighter in other regions: in Minas Gerais, Lula and Bolsonaro are in a technical tie with 30 percent and 29 percent respectively; in Rio Grande do Sul, they are also technically tied with Bolsonaro at 32 percent and Lula at 30 percent. In Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado and Flávio Bolsonaro are in a technical tie at 33 percent and 27 percent, while Lula follows with 23 percent.

Second round simulations show varying results by region. In Ceará, Lula maintains a strong lead against all tested opponents, including a 60 percent to 23 percent advantage over Bolsonaro. Conversely, in Goiás, Lula trails both Caiado and Bolsonaro in head to head matchups; specifically, Caiado leads 67 percent to 23 percent. In Rio Grande do Sul, simulations show Bolsonaro at 40 percent and Lula at 35 percent.

The polls also covered state level races. In Goiás, Daniel Vilela leads the gubernatorial race with 37 percent, while Gracinha Caiado leads for the Senate with 20 percent. In Ceará, Ciro Gomes leads for governor with 43 percent over Elmano de Freitas's 33 percent, and Cid Gomes leads the Senate race with 23 percent. In Rio Grande do Sul, Juliana Brizola and Luciano Zucco are in a technical tie for governor, while five candidates are technically tied for the Senate, with Manuela D'Ávila numerically ahead at 12 percent.